LNG Supply, Demand, Pricing & Trading - Jul 2024

Overview

The early 2020s have seen major changes in the global LNG business, responding to the impact of Covid19, the Ukraine war and energy transition. LNG and natural gas prices have swung from a low point of $2/MMBtu in 2020, when demand fell with the Covid crisis, to over $70/MMBtu in 2022, as Europe’s demand surged in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, 2023 was a year of fewer shocks. Prices were more stable but around double the 2019 level. LNG supply and demand growth slowed to under 2% from 5% in 2021-2022. High prices and slowing economic growth affected demand in 2023 while the only addition to liquefaction capacity was the 3.8 mtpa train 3 at the Tangguh plant in Indonesia.

The outlook for growth in supply is much brighter with major new liquefaction projects in Qatar, USA, Canada and Russia scheduled to come on stream between 2024-2028, adding over 200 mtpa of liquefaction capacity to the 470 mtpa in operation at the end of 2023. There will be declines in output from some of the operating plants as reserves decline and older trains are taken offline but supply and demand is expected to increase from 402 mtpa in 2023 to 625 mtpa by 2030. Projects with a total capacity of over 400 mtpa are at the planning stage and developers of over 100 mtpa of capacity are targeting FID by the end of 2024. However, there is uncertainty over how many of these projects will be required to meet long-term demand as governments of the existing and prospective LNG importing countries target net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or 2060. Developers argue that natural gas and LNG will be needed to help manage the transition to renewables while environmentalist see natural gas as just another fossil fuel whose use has to be reduced if targets to slow climate change are to be achieved. Some buyers and financiers have been reluctant to commit to supply from new LNG projects, which will be looking to produce LNG into the 2040s to remunerate the investment of billions of US dollars.

The online course will, over 6 sessions, discuss the issues facing the LNG business as it looks to meet the needs of consumers over period to 2050. It will focus on commercial issues, but technology and shipping will also be covered. It will consider the outlook for the business in terms of markets, sources of supply, pricing and trading and the response to energy transition. It is designed not only for newcomers to LNG but also those who want to refresh their knowledge or who have experience in one part of the business or one region and want to widen their knowledge.

Course Sessions

1. LNG value chain in 2024
2. Safety, shipping and current status of the LNG business
3. LNG markets and terminals
4. LNG shipping and supply
5. Acquiring LNG supply and LNG pricing
6. LNG contracts and LNG spot & short-term trading

Benefits of Attending

• Understand LNG chain technologies, costs, economics and safety
• Appreciate how the LNG business is changing and the implications for those working in the business
• Gain insights into LNG pricing and how it is evolving
• Acquire in depth knowledge of world LNG markets and supply sources
• Assess the increasing role of spot and short-term trading

Testimonials

“Excellent overview of the LNG industry end-to-end. I would highly recommend to anyone wanting to learn about the industry.”
- Murphy Exploration and Production

“The presenter was very clear and the content was communicated very well with many examples and was really very topical. I learned a lot during these sessions and will pass this on. Thanks again.”
- Aqualectra

“Good, interesting and useful for my place of work. Taking into account an LNG plant that is being built in my country.”
- Ministry of Petroleum

“Thank you for the fruitful training course which I really appreciated. Everything was excellent. Training materials were well prepared and up to date.”
- Petroleum Institute of Thailand